Why the Yen is set for a fall

Yen spot and futures positions (Sources: ANZ, FT)
Yen spot rate and net futures balance (Sources: ANZ, FT)

The yen has been one of the standout currencies this year, rising more than 10% against the US dollar to ¥108/$. It has slipped in the last few days, but most investors still think that it will strengthen. I don’t. Continue reading “Why the Yen is set for a fall”

What now for German Bunds?

With the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to venture further into the world of negative interest rates tomorrow, it is not impossible that the rally in German Bunds will continue, even though yields are now at, or close to, record lows. After all, government bond yields in Switzerland, where the key policy rate is -0.75%, are still a lot lower than those in Germany. But even if the ECB does add more monetary stimulus on Thursday, I doubt that the rally will last. Continue reading “What now for German Bunds?”